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Orchard Uses Loan Data to Predict Another Super Bowl. Winner?

As we approach the big game this weekend, we will once again pit two teams against each other using online borrowing and credit data to predict the winner. So far, our dataset and methodology have been used to successfully predict two of the last three Super Bowl winners. After last year’s miss, we’re looking to redeem ourselves.

Putting emotions aside, we will use the same methodology used in last year’s post, comparing the teams in terms of Loan Volume, Borrower Characteristics, Vintage Characteristics, and Loan Performance of borrowers in their respective media markets.

For our analysis, in order to most accurately represent the Patriots and Eagles media markets, we will be using Combined Statistical Areas to approximate the underlying demographics of each fan base. In this analysis, we will compare the two areas using Lending Club loans originated from 2010 through September 2017.

The population of Greater Boston is approximately 8.1 million and is 14% larger than the population of Greater Philadelphia at approximately 7.1 million. Regarding loan volume, as seen in the graph below, monthly originations between the two areas have been very comparable in terms of volume as well as trend.

 

Q1: Loan Origination Volume

Q1_Originations_Super Bowl

As we see from the data points, although the ratio of loans originated in Greater Boston to Greater Philadelphia has neared closer to 1 each year since 2010, the Patriots maintain the edge here originating 1.32x Eagles originations.

 

Origination Year New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles Patriots to Eagles Ratio
2010 1,441,700 647,875 2.23
2011 2,284,150 993,675 2.30
2012 4,960,950 2,325,525 2.13
2013 10,757,375 6,671,625 1.61
2014 17,104,250 11,845,275 1.44
2015 32,116,650 22,843,350 1.41
2016 28,855,800 20,941,200 1.38
2017 21,812,600 16,572,175 1.32

 

ADVANTAGE: PATRIOTS

 

Q2: Vintage Loan Borrower Characteristics (2017)

In 2017, borrowers from Greater Boston had better overall borrower characteristics than that of the Greater Philadelphia area. We see that with the exception of Annual Income (by a slight margin), the Patriots have more favorable stats in each of the categories listed. Higher FICO, lower Average Interest Rate, lower Average Debt-to-income, and a lower Revolving Credit Utilization.  

Borrower Statistics New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles
Annual Income $82,055.78 $83,624.83
Average FICO Score 703.74 702.58
Average Debt-to-income 16.78% 19.22%
Revolving Credit Utilization 48.96% 50.89%

*please note, all average stats are weighted by original loan amount

 

A significantly larger percentage of borrowers in the Greater Philadelphia area own their home (the majority having mortgages) as compared to the Greater Boston area where we find most borrowers are renters.

Homeowner Statistics New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles
Own 24.22% 52.09%
Rent 69.37% 36.29%
Own – No Mortgage 6.41% 11.62%

 

ADVANTAGE: TIE

 

 

Q3: Vintage Loan Characteristics (2015-2017)

Borrowers in both Greater Philadelphia and Greater Boston had similar sized loans, with Philadelphians borrowing $729 more dollars on average. Interest rates for those loans in Philadelphia were slightly higher as well (18 bps), while the distribution of terms and types were fairly consistent, as were the loan purposes.

 

Borrower Statistics New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles
Average Loan Amount $14,656.39 $15,385.52
Average Interest Rate 13.31% 13.49%
Average Term (Months) 43.67 45.53

*please note, all average  stats are weighted by original loan amount

 

Loan Type Statistics New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles
Whole 75.78% 78.59%
Fractional 24.22% 21.41%

 

Loan Purpose Category New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles
Debt Consolidation 79.36% 76.86%
Other 6.86% 6.73%
Home Improvement 4.84% 8.56%
Major Purchase 2.68% 2.04%
Vehicle 1.42% 1.12%
Moving 1.19% 0.71%
Small Business 1.19% 1.22%
Medical 0.97% 1.63%
Vacation 0.82% 0.71%
Household 0.60% 0.41%
Renewable / Green Loans 0.07%

 

Loan Purpose Super Bowl

As we inspect the data below, we see the distribution of loans by grade, “A” assigning the lowest risk level to “G” assigning the highest. We see that the Patriot’s have a slightly more favorable distribution of higher quality loans with over 51.1% in grades A & B compared to Philadelphia’s 47.8%.

 

Loan Purpose Super Bowl

     

Grade New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles
A 20.34% 18.86%
B 30.85% 28.95%
C 32.79% 35.27%
D 9.17% 10.19%
E 4.40% 4.08%
F 1.64% 1.94%
G 0.82% 0.71%

 

ADVANTAGE: TIE

 

Q4: 2016 Loan Performance

For performance, we have isolated Monthly Return, Cumulative Return, Charge-Off Rate, and Recovery Rate. As seen in the graphic below the shape of the trends we are analyzing for performance are relatively similar between the two teams.

However, as we delve deeper into the figures, we see that the Patriots, due to a lower charge-off rate, have a more favorable return profile.

Annualized Return by Team

Return Metrics New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles
Weighted Average Interest Rate 13.31% 13.49%
Cumulative Charge-Off Rate 6.91% 7.27%

 

Net Annualized Return (shown quarterly)

Date Patriots Eagles Win / Loss
1/1/16 8.60% 11.03% Eagles
4/1/16 6.74% 7.68% Eagles
7/1/16 5.26% 4.94% Patriots
10/1/16 2.25% -0.22% Patriots
1/1/17 0.62% -0.05% Patriots
4/1/17 -2.22% 1.39% Eagles
7/1/17 0.98% -0.64% Patriots
10/1/17 -2.08% -12.81% Patriots

 

ADVANTAGE: PATRIOTS

 

BOX SCORE

TEAM Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
NE TIE TIE
PHI X TIE TIE X

 

WINNER: PATRIOTS

Will this be the outcome of Sunday’s game? Interesting Fun Fact: While the loan data predicts that the Patriots will win the first quarter, in the Tom Brady / Bill Belichick era, the Patriots have never scored in the first quarter of any of their seven Super Bowl appearances. Source. I guess time will tell but I’m putting my money where the data is.

Best of luck to both teams and to all the fans out there!